Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We're so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside
There behind a glass stands a real blade of grass
Be careful as you pass, move along, move along
Come inside, the show's about to startWe're so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside
There behind a glass stands a real blade of grass
Be careful as you pass, move along, move along
Guaranteed to blow your head apart
Rest assured you'll get your money's worth
Greatest show in Heaven, Hell or Earth
- Emerson, Lake & Palmer "Karn Evil 9"
The
Five Year Bet is back. Some of us have been looking forward to this
moment for years, some of us for months, but everyone who drafted five
years ago instantly signed up for another shot. We held a snake draft
over email two weeks ago. The eagerness was palpable - I know I wasn't
the only one receiving texts telling me to hurry up and make my next
pick. With few reliable long-term stalwarts and a host of teams teeming
with upside, many close decisions had to be made. Let's take a look how
it shook out.
The Draft
1. Eric - Philadelphia Eagles
I had the Eagles #1 on my board. I'm curious if others had them tops as well. With a young John Elway, stable, committed ownership and an intelligent progressive coaching staff, Philly should give Klein a nice foundation.
2. Toph - LA Rams
I struggled to decide on my #2 and I was grateful I didn't have to pick here. The Rams made a lot of sense as they appear to be an ascending team with a young franchise QB and genius coach in place. They also may currently be the most talented team in the league. What worries me is they would have gone near the end of this draft if we'd held it a year earlier. I'm wary of teams with that sort of stock volatility. Also, I'm not sure Jared Goff is good.
3. Zack/Paul - New England Patriots
This pick scares me. It scares me because Tom Brady will be 45 before the Bet ends. It scares me because the Pats don't appear to have another foundational player on the roster. It scares me because there's no guarantee Bill Belichick will continue coaching after Brady retires. I'm also scared of Zack and Paul chortling in my basement most fall Sundays the next five years, gleefully adding wins to the spreadsheet. I wouldn't have done it, but I can't blame them for attaching themselves to the only NFL Dynasty of the modern era.
4. Alex - Green Bay Packers
This was a no-brainer. The Pack went first in the first Bet and little has changed since then. They're a stable, publicly owned franchise with the greatest quarterback to ever play the game.
5. Tom - Minnesota Vikings
I wasn't sure where to turn after the first of many snipings. Eventually I narrowed it down to Minnesota and Atlanta, ultimately choosing the Vikes cause I think Mike Zimmer is a better coach than Dan Quinn.
6. Jamie/Jack - Atlanta
Obviously I was disappointed to see this NorCal duo grab the Falcons, who've won 24 games the last two years. Every core player they have figures to keep playing through the duration of this bet. Atlanta's talented offense and underrated defense should give them a nice floor. It's surprising to see they won just 18 games the first three years of the last Bet.
7. Jamie/Jack - Kansas City
This seems like a low floor/high ceiling pick, as J&J are gambling on an unproven quarterback. But when you realize Andy Reid has a twenty year track record of success while coaching Donovan McNabb and reclamation projects, this becomes a high floor/high ceiling pick.
8. Tom - Pittsburgh Steelers
With Big Ben entering the twilight of his career, I was wavering on this pick. Then a Pittsburgh friend reminded me they made the Super Bowl with Neil O'Donnell, two AFC Championship Games with Kordell Stewart and a Divisional Round with Tommy Maddox. Sold.
9. Alex - New Orleans Saints
I actually feel much better about this pick today than when it was made. Drew Brees is 39 years old and the organization has been ejecting draft picks in win-now mode. But the acquisition of Teddy Bridgewater may give them a franchise QB they can smoothly transition to after Brees hangs it up.
10. Zack/Paul - Houston Texans
These guys followed their opening high-risk/high-reward pick with an even riskier one. If Deshaun Watson's flashes portend the league's next great quarterback, this pick should pay dividends. If he's the next RGIII, they'll be regretting this pick like I regretted picking Washington five years ago.
11. Toph - San Francisco 49ers
I was surprised they didn't go higher. I imagine there was some trepidation after they ruined Alex's first team. I know they haven't posted a winning record since 2013. But Jimmy G has never lost a game and Kyle Shanahan is a legitimate offensive genius.
12. Eric - Jacksonville Jaguars
I think this pick has more downside than meets the eye. The Jaguars are intriguing because they're a quarterback away from being the best team in the league. But defenses are far less consistent year-to-year than offenses. Defenses rarely stay dominant for more than a few years. The bottom could fall out quickly in Jacksonville.
13. Eric - Oakland Raiders
The draft's most shocking selection. This pick stunned everyone. Oakland was #28 on my board, and that was before the tumultuous final weekend of the preseason in which Khalil Mack was traded and Martavis Bryant was released. Klein is known for being a contrarian and he upped that reputation with this one. There's little reason to criticize any pick at this stage though. Time will tell. One thing is for sure - I'll be google image searching "Jon Gruden adjective" for Klein's team picture multiple times over the next five years.
14. Toph - Dallas Cowboys
Another choice I found surprising. Dallas is a historically successful franchise with an apparent franchise quarterback in place, but I have Jerry Jitters. Dallas was productive for Toph the first go-round. I don't know why it always feels like they're about to fall apart.
15. Zack/Paul - LA Chargers
I dunno about this one. The Chargers are a Super Bowl pick in some circles, but Philip Rivers has the noodliest arm in the league. There isn't much of a succession plan in place and this team has no home field advantage. It's a lot of instability for a team in the top half of the draft.
16. Alex - Seattle Seahawks
This was a heartbreaking snipe for me, especially when Alex hesitated then chose with admittedly no research. I think people were too focused on the leaves and lost sight of the forest here. Seattle has the best under-30 QB in the league, strong stable ownership and a robust home-field advantage. The talent level is in a valley, but this is a five-year bet, not a one-year.
17. Tom - Indianapolis Colts
Shaken by the Seattle snipe, I stepped out on a ledge with a crazy man named Jim Irsay. I couldn't pass up the chance at five years of a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. If Luck's shoulder has been properly repaired, it will be hard for this pick to fail. If Luck's not right, it will be hard for it to succeed. Considering my overall strategy was to embrace safety and avoid anchors, I'm currently experiencing quite a bit of self-doubt.
18. Jamie/Jack - Carolina Panthers
At 29 years old, Cam Newton appears to be in the prime of his career. But Cam is a unique quarterback. His career trajectory might look more like a running back's. It's possible Carolina could get stuck with two years of declining Cam and two years of rebuilding behind the next guy.
19. Jamie/Jack - Tennessee Titans
Sniped again! I love Tennessee's outlook short term and long. I actually had them ahead of the Colts, but thought I had a good chance to get both if I took Indy first. Jamie told me he and Jack were considering Indy at this turn, so the duo may have been impossible. Perhaps I shouldn't have gotten fancy and stuck to my board.
20. Tom - Detroit Lions
This was an obvious, boring pick. I'm not a believer in the Belichick Coaching Tree, but Detroit was the last team available with a stalwart QB situation.
21. Alex - Cincinnati Bengals
A murky franchise with a shadowy future, Cincinnati was actually Alex's top team during the first Bet. I personally wouldn't hitch my wagon to Mike Brown, but Alex's devotion is understandable. Every remaining team has scary downside.
22. Zack/Paul - Denver Broncos
A traditionally successful franchise without a franchise QB in place, Zack & Paul's hometown team is typical of the franchises available at this point. They seem fairly secure, but don't actually have much of a foundation in place.
23. Toph - Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finally get Joe Flacco's constricting contract off the books next season, generating an opportunity for upward mobility. Baltimore is looking at new management and a new quarterback, so it could end up being a lengthy rebuild. If Lamar Jackson is the answer, this pick could be a steal.
24. Eric - New York Giants
The Giants are one of the bigger enigmas in the Bet, featuring an old, shitty QB, a wildly talented supporting cast, an idiotic GM, a new coach and a hearty history. I have no idea how they'll fare.
25. Tom - Arizona Cardinals
I was lucky to draw the first pick of the final round on the redraw, though I wonder if anyone else would have picked Arizona at 25. I'm a huge Josh Rosen fan, so I was excited to get some long-term money down on him.
26. Jamie/Jack - Washington Redskins
I made the mistake of linking up with Dan Snyder five years ago and vowed never to do that again. But in the final round, Washington can't be that bad of a pick. They've won at least seven games each of the last three years.
27. Toph - Chicago Bears
Toph's hometown crew has often been compared to the 2017 Rams as a possible turnaround team. That sort of radical improvement is highly unusual, and I'm not sure if Mitchell Trubisky is any good. But this is decent value.
28. Zack/Paul - Cleveland Browns
Guess what? It's another risky pick from Zack & Paul. Baker Mayfield looks legit and this team is oozing with talent. But anyone who's watched an episode of Hard Knocks this season knows this organization is run by a barrel of monkeys.
29. Alex - New York Jets
Love this pick. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets finish in the top half of teams. Sam Darnold looks like a true franchise quarterback, the general manager has set his team up for the long game, the coaches are sharp, the division is weak and former meddlesome owner Woody Johnson is now part of the Trump administration.
30. Eric - Miami Dolphins
Unlucky draw for Klein. He got to take the Eagles first, but then had to wait till the end of the snake to select again, after most of the trustworthy franchises had been taken. That led him to the jittery Jacksonville/Oakland combo, and then he had to wait again till the end of the fourth round to pick again, after all the solid QB situations were gone. Finally, he drew the last pick of the last round. Still I would have gone with one of...
31. The Dregs - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. The Dregs - Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was the Bet's most obvious stayaway, but I thought Tampa was undervalued. Once they clear out Dirk Koetter and perhaps GM Jason Licht, they'll be left with a talented young QB, nice surrounding pieces and some ballers on defense. They'll win more games than several drafted teams.
Power Rankings
6. Eric
1. Philadelphia
2. Jacksonville
3. Oakland
4. New York Giants
5. Miami
I ranked Klein's fantasy football team last in our league and now this. We're supposed to hang out later this week. Awkward. Klein has proved me wrong before but winning this pool might be his greatest upset. The second best QB on this squad is Derek Carr and only one of these teams is known for defense. My guess is this team doesn't look that bad until around November 2019, at which point Klein starts planning for the next Five Year Bet.
I ranked Klein's fantasy football team last in our league and now this. We're supposed to hang out later this week. Awkward. Klein has proved me wrong before but winning this pool might be his greatest upset. The second best QB on this squad is Derek Carr and only one of these teams is known for defense. My guess is this team doesn't look that bad until around November 2019, at which point Klein starts planning for the next Five Year Bet.
5. Zack/Paul
1. New England
2. Houston
3. L.A. Chargers
4. Denver
5. Cleveland
I
don't want to criticize this team much, cause I believe it may
currently sport more talent than any other, cause it has the potential
to win the Bet in a blowout if everything goes right and cause it looks
like the favorite to lead the pool after year one. But wasn't the
biggest lesson we learned from the first Bet to avoid downside? This
group is loaded with it.
4. Toph
1. L.A. Rams
2. San Francisco
3. Dallas
4. Baltimore
5. Chicago
I don't have a good feel for any of these teams. We'll know a lot more before this season ends.
3. Jamie/Jack
1. Atlanta
2. Kansas City
3. Carolina
4. Tennessee
5. Washington
I
thought these guys drafted well, but the end product seems to be
missing explosiveness. Perhaps that's the consequence of drafting from the
tail of the snake and perhaps that's a fallacy of evaluating teams beforehand. These teams may not have the greatest ownership situations, but
they've employed a rock-solid collection of QBs and coaches.
2. Tom
1. Minnesota
2. Pittsburgh
3. Indianapolis
4. Detroit
5. Arizona
Outside
of the Indy pick, this appears to be a boring, straightforward group. I
felt like I got sniped repeatedly but wound up with a solid collection.
1. Alex
1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. Seattle
4. Cincinnati
5. New York Jets
Led
by three Hall of Fame QBs, Alex's team looks like the favorite going
in. If Sam Darnold is to join Rodgers, Brees and Wilson in Canton, we'll
all be looking forward to the third Bet long before this one wraps.
