Standings After Four Years

Eric - 127 wins

1. Philadelphia - 32

2. Jacksonville - 16

3. Las Vegas/Oakland - 29

4. New York Giants - 19

5. Miami - 31

We all knew Eric's team would stink when he drafted it and it's lived down to expectations. I could make fun of this team for paragraphs on end but I've been dissing the squad since inception and would rather talk about real teams, so I'll just leave with this stat: Eric's best team, the #1 overall Philadelphia Eagles, has fewer wins than Toph's worst team.

Tom - 154 wins

r

1. Minnesota - 34

2. Pittsburgh - 38

3. Indianapolis - 38

4. Detroit - 17

5. Arizona - 27

This punchless squad has won a total of two playoff games during its four lackluster seasons. Despite Andrew Luck's unexpected retirement, the Colts have won as many games as anyone on this team. Beyond Luck and earlier-career Ben Roethlisberger, the best quarterback who's played for any of these teams during the Bet's duration was an Oklahoma Sooner when the bet began. You have to wonder what I was thinking when I took Minnesota in the first round (and by you I mean "I" because I really don't remember). 

Both undrafted dregs - Tampa Bay and Buffalo - have won more games than any team I picked and they're the two betting favorites to win the next Super Bowl. Meanwhile, this group's 2022 prospects are bleak.

Zack/Paul - 164 wins

1. New England - 43

2. Houston - 30

3. L.A. Chargers - 34

4. Denver - 24

5. Cleveland - 33

Zack and Paul's group has faded over the course of the bet, with win totals of 51, 40, 35 and 38. Houston has disintegrated into an embarrassment while Denver has languished below .500 every year of the bet. Zack & Paul went for high-ceiling/low-floor picks and a couple of them did hit their floors. This group does not have the firepower to make up a 36-win deficit in the Bet's final season.

Jack/Jamie: 172 wins

1. Atlanta - 25

2. Kansas City - 58

3. Carolina - 22

4. Tennessee - 43

5. Washington - 24

This is a team of hits and misses. Kansas City is way out in front through four seasons and will almost certainly be the Bet's most lucrative team. But that pick - the first of the second round - was sandwiched between two disastrous NFC South choices in Atlanta and Carolina. Fourth round Tennessee has chugged out four straight winning seasons, but Washington has done the opposite. Just one of these teams has a 2022 over/under over .500, so Jack and Jamie can forget about making up a 28-win deficit in year five.

Alex - 180 wins

 

1. Green Bay - 47

2. New Orleans - 49

3. Seattle - 42

4. Cincinnati - 25

5. New York Jets - 17

Alex began the draft with three strong picks - a trio that's comfortably outscored the pool leader's - but finished with two albatrosses. Cincinnati actually won more games last season than their first three years combined. The New York Jets may finish as the Bet's worst team. Alex has to be kicking himself for taking them over his favorite team, Buffalo. If Alex had taken the Bills or Bucs with his last pick instead of the Jets, he'd be leading the pool right now and we'd be anticipating another photo finish. Instead, this pool will likely be decided by Thanksgiving. The chances of Alex or anyone else overtaking Toph in year five are miniscule.

Toph - 200 wins

1. L.A. Rams - 49

2. San Francisco - 37

3. Dallas - 37

4. Baltimore - 44

5. Chicago - 33

Here's your winner. Toph lost the last pool in excruciating fashion, so it's cool to see his redemption in Bet Two. His hometown Bears have become a punchline, but they averaged nine wins their first three years as a last-round pick. Toph hit the jackpot in the fourth round with the Ravens, who currently sit fifth in wins. Considering their sharp, solid infrastructure, it's funny to think they went #23 behind laughingstocks like Jacksonville and Detroit. Toph's first round pick is tied for second in wins, but most importantly, he avoided all the booby traps.

Toph's 20 win lead is gigantic. On average, about 20 wins separate the worst squad of a given year from its best. The first Bet finished with a 21-win difference between its champion and fifth-place team. That champion garnered 223 wins; Toph's teams need to average just five wins apiece to top that mark. There might be a sliver of hope if his teams were fading, but Vegas expects four of these five to be winning teams in 2022. Toph is going to shatter the records set in the first Bet and win this pool by a wide margin. Congratulations, my man.

Standings After Two Years

 Eric: 62 Wins

1. Philadelphia - 19 (10, 9)
2. Jacksonville - 11 (5, 6)
3. Oakland - 11 (4, 7)
4. New York Giants - 9 (5, 4)
5. Miami - 12 (7, 5)

How bad is Eric's team? So bad its best team has as many wins as Toph's worst. So bad its second best team is in the midst of a complete rebuild. So bad it's already trailing by 42 wins. We all laughed at Eric's team on draft day, we laughed again after year one, and we're laughing harder than ever now. Any time the next three years you need a chuckle, just log on and look at this atrocious group of teams. It's a remarkable collection of rubbish. It has no hope of winning. Its dream scenario is a 4th-place finish.

Tom: 71 wins

1. Minnesota - 19 (8, 11)
2. Pittsburgh - 17 (9, 8)
3. Indianapolis - 18 (11, 7)
4. Detroit - 9 (6, 3)
5. Arizona - 8 (3, 5)

This squad was wildly unlucky last year, with its top three quarterbacks and overall players combining to play ten games. Andrew Luck's retirement cast a pall over the group before the season began, with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Stafford soon following him off the field. That's not to say this squad would be a contender in a more fortunate parallel universe. There's no stalwart here, but there are two major anchors (last-place Arizona and second-to-last place Detroit). These teams have combined to win one more game than undrafted Buffalo. The whole team has combined for two playoff wins in two seasons. Rest easy fellas: there will not be a back-to-back champion of The Bet.

Jack/Jamie: 84 wins

1. Atlanta - 14 (7, 7)
2. Kansas City - 28 (13, 15)
3. Carolina - 12 (7, 5)
4. Tennessee - 20 (9, 11)
5. Washington - 10 (7, 3)

Not only has Kansas City won the most games through two years, but they might have the brightest prospects over the next three. The 500 million dollar man will need to remain on the field for Jack and Jamie to have any chance at making up their twenty-win deficit. Their other teams simply aren't strong enough. Carolina just began a rebuild, Tennessee futilely hopes career-mediocre Ryan Tannehill will recapture magic in a bottle, and first-round pick Atlanta has yet to get to .500. Also, they drafted Washington for some reason. The first time around, New England comfortably led all teams in wins for fourth-place Zack & Paul. We may see the Chiefs post a similar result for a similarly-noncontending team.

Alex: 88 wins

1. Green Bay: 20 (6, 14)
2. New Orleans: 27 (14, 13)
3. Seattle: 22 (10, 12)
4. Cincinnati: 8 (6, 2)
5. New York Jets: 11 (4, 7)

The lesson from the first Bet was that avoiding awful teams was more important than choosing good ones. Alex was unable to adhere to that principle and finds his team compromised because of it. Despite the presence of three NFC thoroughbreds, he finds himself in third place thanks to the hapless Jets and league-worst Bengals. While Joe Burrow provides the latter with a beacon of hope, the former find themselves on the cusp of another rebuild. Around the time these bedridden franchises find their footing, the Saints and Packers will begin their own rebuilds. Alex needs to win this year to have a shot at the five-year title.

Zack/Paul: 91 wins

1. New England: 26 (14, 12)
2. Houston: 22 (11, 11)
3. LA Chargers: 18 (13, 5)
4. Denver: 12 (6, 6)
5. Cleveland: 13 (7, 6)

With New England and Houston still on track for double-digit wins and three young quarterbacks animating the hopes of their other teams, the Coloradoans have the best chance at overtaking the pool's leader. They'll need a lot to go right: the Brady/Belichick chicken/egg debate will have to be won by Belichick; Deshaun Watson will need to keep transcending his house-on-fire franchise; Drew Lock and Justin Herbert will need to be good; and Cleveland's substantial talent will need to overcome the malaise of their franchise. It's a lot to ask for, but it's all plausible.

Toph: 104 wins

1. LA Rams: 23 (15, 8)
2. San Francisco: 19 (4, 15)
3. Dallas: 19 (11, 8)
4. Baltimore: 24 (10, 14)
5. Chicago: 19 (12, 7)

Though three of Toph's teams regressed in 2019, he extended his lead thanks to outstanding performances from the 49ers and Ravens. The 2013 Super Bowl combatants simultaneously returned to glory, with San Francisco dispatching all comers in the NFC and Baltimore winning twelve straight games before a playoff upset. Those two teams shine as Toph's brightest immediate prospects, but all have hope. Dallas is primed for some win regression, Chicago's quarterbacking can't possibly get worse and the Rams still have studs. Toph would be the favorite in a three-year bet starting this season; his 13-win lead on the field positions his squad to embarrass his competitors and avenge the sting of his harrowing loss in the initial Bet.

Standings After One Year

Just one year into the second Bet, we've seen a chasm widen between the contenders and the darkhorses. And then we've seen a Grand Canyon divide the darkhorses from the cellar-dweller. Here's a look at where the teams stack up one fifth of the way through.

Eric: 31 wins

1. Philadelphia (10)
2. Jacksonville (5)
3. Oakland (4)
4. New York Giants (5)
5. Miami (7)

"My guess is this team doesn't look that bad until November 2019, at which point Klein starts planning for the next Five Year Bet," I wrote after the draft. I was wrong. It's looked bad at every moment. It looks absolutely putrid at this point. There's little reason to have confidence in four of the five teams. Behind Carson Wentz, the closest thing to a franchise quarterback on these teams is Daniel Jones. The longest-tenured coach of the four is Doug Marrone. We all had a good laugh about the Raider pick at #13 overall but even a pristine choice would not have saved the Kleins. This team is hopeless.

Tom: 37 wins

1. Minnesota (8)
2. Pittsburgh (9)
3. Indianapolis (11)
4. Detroit (6)
5. Arizona (3)

The big draft decision I questioned was Indianapolis at #17. That's looking like the best selection I made. Minnesota and Pittsburgh blew a bunch of close games, Detroit may be rebuilding again as soon as next year and the (3) from Arizona is a devastating anchor. Most concerning is how good the top teams look and the two-touchdown lead they've been spotted. This isn't a hopeless situation like Klein's, but it's bleak.

Alex: 40 wins

1. Green Bay (6)
2. New Orleans (14)
3. Seattle (10)
4. Cincinnati (6)
5. New York Jets (4)

The NFC teams vanguarding Alex's squadron are positioned to win a lot of games in 2019, but ugly front office situations for his AFC teams are squashing his chances. Alex will need unlikely short and long-term turnarounds from the Bengals and Jets to have a chance.

Jack/Jamie: 43 wins

1. Atlanta (7)
2. Kansas City (13)
3. Carolina (7)
4. Tennessee (9)
5. Washington (7)
This squad has Pat Mahomes and some other teams. While the Falcons, Panthers and Titans could compete for titles, middling finishes appear more likely. Washington is rebuilding. The Chiefs don't have a defense or a conscience. Jack and Jamie have a better chance of hunting down the big dogs than the teams before them, but it will take a surprise surge or two.

Zack/Paul: 51 wins

1. New England (14)
2. Houston (11)
3. LA Chargers (13)
4. Denver (6)
5. Cleveland (7)

We'll know more about this potent group in half a year. While the squad contains some ticking timebombs, it's positioned to win a lot of games in 2019. The Patriots sport the league's highest over/under (10.5 wins) and three of their other teams are projected above .500. Cleveland's potential ascension to the top of the AFC North could be the differencemaker for Zack & Paul. Or bad karma could crumble their rotten foundation. Zack & Paul will be looking to seize the lead over the next two seasons, because while their teams may be rebuilding by 2022, Toph's oldest franchise QB is 27.

Toph: 52 wins

1. LA Rams (15)
2. San Francisco (4)
3. Dallas (11)
4. Baltimore (10)
5. Chicago (12)

Toph has the most wins so far and the best team looking forward. While other teams have flaws, Toph's has mere quibbles. Perhaps the Patriots provided a blueprint to slow down the Rams. The Niners still don't have a defense. Dallas may have to sign Dak Prescott to a crippling contract or find someone else. Lamar Jackson and Mitchell Trubisky aren't there yet. But Toph is the favorite one year in.

The Second Draft

Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We're so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside
There behind a glass stands a real blade of grass
Be careful as you pass, move along, move along

Come inside, the show's about to start
Guaranteed to blow your head apart
Rest assured you'll get your money's worth
Greatest show in Heaven, Hell or Earth

 - Emerson, Lake & Palmer "Karn Evil 9"

The Five Year Bet is back. Some of us have been looking forward to this moment for years, some of us for months, but everyone who drafted five years ago instantly signed up for another shot. We held a snake draft over email two weeks ago. The eagerness was palpable - I know I wasn't the only one receiving texts telling me to hurry up and make my next pick. With few reliable long-term stalwarts and a host of teams teeming with upside, many close decisions had to be made. Let's take a look how it shook out.

The Draft

1. Eric - Philadelphia Eagles
I had the Eagles #1 on my board. I'm curious if others had them tops as well. With a young John Elway, stable, committed ownership and an intelligent progressive coaching staff, Philly should give Klein a nice foundation.

2. Toph - LA Rams
I struggled to decide on my #2 and I was grateful I didn't have to pick here. The Rams made a lot of sense as they appear to be an ascending team with a young franchise QB and genius coach in place. They also may currently be the most talented team in the league. What worries me is they would have gone near the end of this draft if we'd held it a year earlier. I'm wary of teams with that sort of stock volatility. Also, I'm not sure Jared Goff is good.

3. Zack/Paul - New England Patriots
This pick scares me. It scares me because Tom Brady will be 45 before the Bet ends. It scares me because the Pats don't appear to have another foundational player on the roster. It scares me because there's no guarantee Bill Belichick will continue coaching after Brady retires. I'm also scared of Zack and Paul chortling in my basement most fall Sundays the next five years, gleefully adding wins to the spreadsheet. I wouldn't have done it, but I can't blame them for attaching themselves to the only NFL Dynasty of the modern era.

4. Alex - Green Bay Packers
This was a no-brainer. The Pack went first in the first Bet and little has changed since then. They're a stable, publicly owned franchise with the greatest quarterback to ever play the game.

5. Tom - Minnesota Vikings
I wasn't sure where to turn after the first of many snipings. Eventually I narrowed it down to Minnesota and Atlanta, ultimately choosing the Vikes cause I think Mike Zimmer is a better coach than Dan Quinn.

6. Jamie/Jack - Atlanta
Obviously I was disappointed to see this NorCal duo grab the Falcons, who've won 24 games the last two years. Every core player they have figures to keep playing through the duration of this bet. Atlanta's talented offense and underrated defense should give them a nice floor. It's surprising to see they won just 18 games the first three years of the last Bet.

7. Jamie/Jack - Kansas City
This seems like a low floor/high ceiling pick, as J&J are gambling on an unproven quarterback. But when you realize Andy Reid has a twenty year track record of success while coaching Donovan McNabb and reclamation projects, this becomes a high floor/high ceiling pick.

8. Tom - Pittsburgh Steelers
With Big Ben entering the twilight of his career, I was wavering on this pick. Then a Pittsburgh friend reminded me they made the Super Bowl with Neil O'Donnell, two AFC Championship Games with Kordell Stewart and a Divisional Round with Tommy Maddox. Sold.

9. Alex - New Orleans Saints
I actually feel much better about this pick today than when it was made. Drew Brees is 39 years old and the organization has been ejecting draft picks in win-now mode. But the acquisition of Teddy Bridgewater may give them a franchise QB they can smoothly transition to after Brees hangs it up.

10. Zack/Paul - Houston Texans
These guys followed their opening high-risk/high-reward pick with an even riskier one. If Deshaun Watson's flashes portend the league's next great quarterback, this pick should pay dividends. If he's the next RGIII, they'll be regretting this pick like I regretted picking Washington five years ago.

11. Toph - San Francisco 49ers
I was surprised they didn't go higher. I imagine there was some trepidation after they ruined Alex's first team. I know they haven't posted a winning record since 2013. But Jimmy G has never lost a game and Kyle Shanahan is a legitimate offensive genius.

12. Eric - Jacksonville Jaguars
I think this pick has more downside than meets the eye. The Jaguars are intriguing because they're a quarterback away from being the best team in the league. But defenses are far less consistent year-to-year than offenses. Defenses rarely stay dominant for more than a few years. The bottom could fall out quickly in Jacksonville.

13. Eric - Oakland Raiders
The draft's most shocking selection. This pick stunned everyone. Oakland was #28 on my board, and that was before the tumultuous final weekend of the preseason in which Khalil Mack was traded and Martavis Bryant was released. Klein is known for being a contrarian and he upped that reputation with this one. There's little reason to criticize any pick at this stage though. Time will tell. One thing is for sure - I'll be google image searching "Jon Gruden adjective" for Klein's team picture multiple times over the next five years.

14. Toph - Dallas Cowboys
Another choice I found surprising. Dallas is a historically successful franchise with an apparent franchise quarterback in place, but I have Jerry Jitters. Dallas was productive for Toph the first go-round. I don't know why it always feels like they're about to fall apart.

15. Zack/Paul - LA Chargers
I dunno about this one. The Chargers are a Super Bowl pick in some circles, but Philip Rivers has the noodliest arm in the league. There isn't much of a succession plan in place and this team has no home field advantage. It's a lot of instability for a team in the top half of the draft.

16. Alex - Seattle Seahawks
This was a heartbreaking snipe for me, especially when Alex hesitated then chose with admittedly no research. I think people were too focused on the leaves and lost sight of the forest here. Seattle has the best under-30 QB in the league, strong stable ownership and a robust home-field advantage. The talent level is in a valley, but this is a five-year bet, not a one-year.

17. Tom - Indianapolis Colts
Shaken by the Seattle snipe, I stepped out on a ledge with a crazy man named Jim Irsay. I couldn't pass up the chance at five years of a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. If Luck's shoulder has been properly repaired, it will be hard for this pick to fail. If Luck's not right, it will be hard for it to succeed. Considering my overall strategy was to embrace safety and avoid anchors, I'm currently experiencing quite a bit of self-doubt.

18. Jamie/Jack - Carolina Panthers
At 29 years old, Cam Newton appears to be in the prime of his career. But Cam is a unique quarterback. His career trajectory might look more like a running back's. It's possible Carolina could get stuck with two years of declining Cam and two years of rebuilding behind the next guy.

19. Jamie/Jack - Tennessee Titans
Sniped again! I love Tennessee's outlook short term and long. I actually had them ahead of the Colts, but thought I had a good chance to get both if I took Indy first. Jamie told me he and Jack were considering Indy at this turn, so the duo may have been impossible. Perhaps I shouldn't have gotten fancy and stuck to my board.

20. Tom - Detroit Lions
This was an obvious, boring pick. I'm not a believer in the Belichick Coaching Tree, but Detroit was the last team available with a stalwart QB situation.

21. Alex - Cincinnati Bengals
A murky franchise with a shadowy future, Cincinnati was actually Alex's top team during the first Bet. I personally wouldn't hitch my wagon to Mike Brown, but Alex's devotion is understandable. Every remaining team has scary downside.

22. Zack/Paul - Denver Broncos
A traditionally successful franchise without a franchise QB in place, Zack & Paul's hometown team is typical of the franchises available at this point. They seem fairly secure, but don't actually have much of a foundation in place.

23. Toph - Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finally get Joe Flacco's constricting contract off the books next season, generating an opportunity for upward mobility. Baltimore is looking at new management and a new quarterback, so it could end up being a lengthy rebuild. If Lamar Jackson is the answer, this pick could be a steal.

24. Eric - New York Giants
The Giants are one of the bigger enigmas in the Bet, featuring an old, shitty QB, a wildly talented supporting cast, an idiotic GM, a new coach and a hearty history. I have no idea how they'll fare.

25. Tom - Arizona Cardinals
I was lucky to draw the first pick of the final round on the redraw, though I wonder if anyone else would have picked Arizona at 25. I'm a huge Josh Rosen fan, so I was excited to get some long-term money down on him.

26. Jamie/Jack - Washington Redskins
I made the mistake of linking up with Dan Snyder five years ago and vowed never to do that again. But in the final round, Washington can't be that bad of a pick. They've won at least seven games each of the last three years.

27. Toph - Chicago Bears
Toph's hometown crew has often been compared to the 2017 Rams as a possible turnaround team. That sort of radical improvement is highly unusual, and I'm not sure if Mitchell Trubisky is any good. But this is decent value.

28. Zack/Paul - Cleveland Browns
Guess what? It's another risky pick from Zack & Paul. Baker Mayfield looks legit and this team is oozing with talent. But anyone who's watched an episode of Hard Knocks this season knows this organization is run by a barrel of monkeys.

29. Alex - New York Jets
Love this pick. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets finish in the top half of teams. Sam Darnold looks like a true franchise quarterback, the general manager has set his team up for the long game, the coaches are sharp, the division is weak and former meddlesome owner Woody Johnson is now part of the Trump administration.

30. Eric - Miami Dolphins
Unlucky draw for Klein. He got to take the Eagles first, but then had to wait till the end of the snake to select again, after most of the trustworthy franchises had been taken. That led him to the jittery Jacksonville/Oakland combo, and then he had to wait again till the end of the fourth round to pick again, after all the solid QB situations were gone. Finally, he drew the last pick of the last round. Still I would have gone with one of...

31. The Dregs - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. The Dregs - Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was the Bet's most obvious stayaway, but I thought Tampa was undervalued. Once they clear out Dirk Koetter and perhaps GM Jason Licht, they'll be left with a talented young QB, nice surrounding pieces and some ballers on defense. They'll win more games than several drafted teams.

Power Rankings

6. Eric

1. Philadelphia

2. Jacksonville

3. Oakland

4. New York Giants

5. Miami
I ranked Klein's fantasy football team last in our league and now this. We're supposed to hang out later this week. Awkward. Klein has proved me wrong before but winning this pool might be his greatest upset. The second best QB on this squad is Derek Carr and only one of these teams is known for defense. My guess is this team doesn't look that bad until around November 2019, at which point Klein starts planning for the next Five Year Bet.

5. Zack/Paul

1. New England

2. Houston

3. L.A. Chargers

4. Denver

5. Cleveland

I don't want to criticize this team much, cause I believe it may currently sport more talent than any other, cause it has the potential to win the Bet in a blowout if everything goes right and cause it looks like the favorite to lead the pool after year one. But wasn't the biggest lesson we learned from the first Bet to avoid downside? This group is loaded with it. 

4. Toph

1. L.A. Rams

2. San Francisco

3. Dallas

4. Baltimore

5. Chicago

I don't have a good feel for any of these teams. We'll know a lot more before this season ends. 

3. Jamie/Jack

1. Atlanta

2. Kansas City

3. Carolina

4. Tennessee

5. Washington

I thought these guys drafted well, but the end product seems to be missing explosiveness. Perhaps that's the consequence of drafting from the tail of the snake and perhaps that's a fallacy of evaluating teams beforehand.  These teams may not have the greatest ownership situations, but they've employed a rock-solid collection of QBs and coaches. 

2. Tom

1. Minnesota

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. Detroit

5. Arizona

Outside of the Indy pick, this appears to be a boring, straightforward group. I felt like I got sniped repeatedly but wound up with a solid collection.  

1. Alex

1. Green Bay

2. New Orleans

3. Seattle

4. Cincinnati

5. New York Jets 

Led by three Hall of Fame QBs, Alex's team looks like the favorite going in. If Sam Darnold is to join Rodgers, Brees and Wilson in Canton, we'll all be looking forward to the third Bet long before this one wraps.

The Conclusion

The Five Year Bet ended in impossibly dramatic fashion, with the Philadelphia Eagles winning three straight playoff games as underdogs (including Super Bowl LII) to catapult my squad over Toph's. Heading into the Divisional round of the playoffs, I trailed Toph by three games. The Eagles were my only team left, while Toph had Atlanta and Pittsburgh. To tie Toph, I needed the Eagles to win the Super Bowl while Pittsburgh (a large favorite over Jacksonville) had to lose immediately. Philly pulled out a squeaker over Atlanta when Julio Jones fell down on the deciding 4th & goal. The Steelers were rocked by the Jaguars, and a stunning accounting discovery was made: Toph's Cardinals had been erroneously credited with an extra win years earlier. Suddenly I had a chance not just to tie, but to win. That came to fruition after the Nick Foles-led Eagles stampeded the Vikings and pinballed the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Before losing his late lead, Toph had made quite a comeback himself. He stood in last place after year one, ten games behind me. After my dominant third year, Toph's deficit swelled to 17 games. Toph's team taught us just how long Five Years is in the NFL and just how important every game is. Flip one game (such as Super Bowl LI, with Toph's Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead, or two games that led to rule changes - the Dez Bryant Game and the Jesse James Game -) and the end result is different.

Five years is epic. Let's not forget that Eric led the pool after two seasons. Let's not forget I had Jamie/Shuster/Jack (just one game behind Eric) power-ranked 1st at that point. Let's not forget Zack & Paul chose the Bet's top team (New England, who outscored second place Seattle by twelve wins) but finished in fifth place. Let's not forget the team picked third in the draft (San Francisco) won thirteen games over the final three years of the bet. Let's not forget Eric's loss was due almost entirely to Cleveland, who won fewer games in five seasons than four different teams won in one. Let's not forget the two undrafted teams (Oakland and Minnesota) easily outscored the dregs.

I'm certainly biased by the glorious result, but this was about as much fun as I've ever had gambling. The slow boil of the Bet to its riveting climax generated so much intrigue, entertainment and analysis. I can't wait for the next Five Year Bet to begin - and I know some of you have been waiting years for it. Let's get it on.

Final Standings

Tom - 223 Wins

1. Denver - 56
2. Washington - 31
3. Carolina - 54
4. Philadelphia - 50
5. New York Jets - 32

Toph - 222 Wins

1. Atlanta - 42
2. Pittsburgh - 56
3. Dallas - 47
4. Chicago - 27
5. Arizona - 50

Jamie/Shuster/Jack - 211 Wins

1. Seattle - 61
2. Baltimore - 41
3. Detroit - 43
4. L.A. Rams - 35
5. Tennessee - 31

Zack/Paul - 204 Wins

1. New England - 73
2. Indianapolis - 45
3. New York Giants - 33
4. Tampa Bay - 26
5. Jacksonville - 27

Eric - 202 Wins

1. Green Bay - 51
2. Kansas City - 54
3. New Orleans - 45
4. Cleveland - 15
5. L.A. Chargers - 37

Alex - 192 Wins

1. San Francisco - 35
2. Cincinnati - 46
3. Houston - 34
4. Miami - 38
5. Buffalo - 39

The Homestretch

Here we go. The five year bet has come down to its last two months. For some, this homestretch represents a merciful release from years of misery. Others are on the edge of their seats on Sundays, watching their teams close out or blow games that could be the difference between fortune & glory and debt & devastation. Here's a late look at what went wrong, what went right, and what to watch for as the Bet crescendoes to a riveting finish.


Alex (178 Wins)

1. San Francisco (30)
2. Cincinnati (43)
3. Houston (34)
4. Miami (36)
5. Buffalo (35)

Prospects: Drawing Dead

What Went Wrong: Alex's top pick, his hometown 49ers, the second pick in the draft, have won eight games since they parted ways with Jim Harbaugh. Alex and the Niners will be a cautionary tale for the next Five Year Bet: no matter how glittery a team looks, unstable ownership and small sample-size quarterback play should be considered suspiciously. The rest of Alex's team isn't bad, but it isn't good either. Lacking franchise QBs, (as Bengal fans know, Andy Dalton doesn't count) these teams haven't managed to string together many strong seasons.


Eric (187 Wins)

1. Green Bay (49)
2. Kansas City (50)
3. New Orleans (41)
4. Cleveland (15)
5. San Diego (32)

Prospects: Bleaker Than Bleak

What Went Wrong: Just one pick. Eric took his favorite team, the Cleveland Browns, in the fourth round. I believe if you ask Eric, he'd tell you it was a sentimental pick. I can't hate on him - I took my home team and my then-fantasy-franchise QB's team with my first two picks - but there's no denying the albatross that was the Cleveland Browns from 2013 to 2017. Those who play daily fantasy know that putting together a tournament-winning lineup is more about avoiding "murders" like the Browns than hitting the upside of every pick. The Browns have murdered Eric's 5-Year squad. If they could have managed a meager six wins per season, Eric would be in the thick of things. They've averaged three.


Zack/Paul (189 Wins)

1. New England (66)
2. Indianapolis (44)
3. New York Giants (32)
4. Tampa Bay (25)
5. Jacksonville (22)

Prospects: Drawing Dead

What Went Wrong: If the Browns were a murder, the northern Florida teams were a double-homicide. Jacksonville was tied with Cleveland for fewest wins until this season while the Bucs will go the duration without posting a double-digit win total. While the Patriots have won eight more games than anyone else during the Bet - a number that figures to grow before it's over - the Colts have fallen off after a big start and the Giants only posted one good season. The painful part for Zack & Paul is knowing who they could have picked over those Floridians, including the undrafted Vikings (39 wins) and Raiders (30).


Jamie/Shuster/Jack (193 Wins)

1. Seattle (58)
2. Baltimore (37)
3. Detroit (40)
4. St. Louis/Los Angeles (31)
5. Tennessee (27)

Prospects: So You're Telling Me There's A Chance!

What It Comes Down To: Three months ago I wrote in this space "Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck."

Well, Seattle may get to double digits, Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee all have their eyes on the playoffs, and the Rams definitely don't suck. The trio is accelerating on me and Toph like a heat-seeking missile. They could get three to five of their teams into the postseason, and then things could really get interesting. Every game this team plays is critical, so last night's Seahawks loss to Toph's Falcons was a setback. It's still a distant chance, but keep an eye on this squad down the stretch.


Toph (203 Wins)

1. Atlanta (37)
2. Pittsburgh (51)
3. Dallas (43)
4. Chicago (25)
5. Arizona (47)

Prospects: Strong

What It Comes Down To: Toph hasn't made up any ground on me this season and his teams profile similar to mine. We both have one Super Bowl contender (Pittsburgh/Philadelphia), one second-tier NFC South team (Atlanta/Carolina), one fading team from the NFC East (Dallas/Washington), one plucky bad team (Chicago/New York Jets) and one disgraced former powerhouse with a defense and no quarterback (Arizona/Denver). The remaining head-to-head battles will be crucial:

Week 12: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Week 13: Washington @ Dallas
Week 15: Arizona @ Washington
Week 17: Carolina @ Atlanta
Week 17: Dallas @ Philadelphia


Tom (206 Wins)

1. Denver (54)
2. Washington (28)
3. Carolina (50)
4. Philadelphia (43)
5. New York Jets (31)

Prospects: Strong

What It Comes Down To: My worst fear - a post-Peyton Broncos hellscape - has come to pass. But the Eagles have picked up the slack with a league-leading nine wins in ten games. It wouldn't be surprising to see them drafted first in the next Bet. The Panthers, tops in wins among all teams taken after the first two rounds, are on track for another strong season. I would have gladly taken four wins out of the Jets before the season, and they're already there.

Of course, if I'd just gone Colts over Redskins as I carefully considered, this pool would over without a sweat. That wouldn't have been as exciting as the nailbiter we have in store these last few weeks. The two week 17 matchups against Toph could turn the pool, as could the playoffs. It's possible the Bet won't be decided until January, or possibly even until Super Bowl Sunday in February.

Standings After Four Years

What a fun pool! (For some of us). It's been a slow roller-coaster. After the first year, I had Eric atop the power rankings. A year later, Eric had the most wins and I gave Jamie/Shuster/Jack the best chance of winning. I surged out to a big lead after a huge third season and some speculated that lead might be insurmountable. But my teams tied with Alex's for the fewest wins last season while Toph (who posted the least wins of anyone in year one) mounted a huge charge. Nineteen wins now separate my first-place squad from basement-dwelling Alex. Let's take a look at each team's chances as we prepare for the grand finale, in reverse order of current standing.


Alex (160 Wins)

1. San Francisco - 29 (14, 8, 5, 2)
2. Cincinnati - 39 (11, 10, 12, 6)
3. Houston - 30 (2, 9, 9, 10)
4. Miami - 32 (8, 8, 6, 10)
5. Buffalo - 30 (6, 9, 8, 7)

Alex's team appears to be an exercise in mediocrity. All of his teams have won between 29 and 39 games, averaging between 7 and 10 wins a season. He's only had three team seasons outside the 6-11 win range. None of his teams have played in a Super Bowl, but all except his beloved Bills have reached the playoffs at least once.

But if you're in last place and you have the least chance of winning, is that mediocre? That sounds more like awful. None of Alex's teams has much chance of winning 13+ games this season; the 49ers probably have a better chance of losing 13. It's those Niners, not the Bills, that are haunting Alex. Drafted second overall, they've won fewer games than any other first-round pick. Only Washington has won fewer games among teams drafted in the first three rounds. If San Fran had won an average number of games for a first-round pick, Alex would be right there. Bad as they've been, as the worst team on Alex's roster, they've won at least five more games than the worst team on everyone else's roster. It's been the lack of a team leader that's let Alex down. Kind of like his Bills. Like his new hope, Coach McDermott, Alex will be using this season to feel out the NFL landscape and prepare for the next five years (bet).


Jamie/Shuster/Jack (163 Wins)

1. Seattle - 52 (16, 14, 11, 11)
2. Baltimore - 32 (8, 11, 5, 8)
3. Detroit - 34 (7, 11, 7, 9)
4. St. Louis/LA - 24 (7, 6, 7, 4)
5. Tennessee - 21 (7, 2, 3, 9)

While it's nearly impossible to envision a path to victory for Alex, it's merely extremely difficult to see one for these guys. Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck.

Where did it all go wrong? Tennessee won just five combined games in the 2014 & 2015 seasons. The Rams have not managed more than seven wins in any season. You can't have anchors like that and hope to win this pool. Seems like a good time to mention the two teams that went undrafted: Minnesota, who was won 31 games so far, and Oakland, who's won 26.



Eric (164 Wins)

1. Green Bay - 44 (8, 13, 11, 12)
2. Kansas City - 44 (11, 9, 12, 12)
3. New Orleans - 33 (12, 7, 7, 7)
4. Cleveland - 15 (4, 7, 3, 1)
5. San Diego/LA - 28 (10, 9, 4, 5)

Eric isn't out of this just yet. The Pack and the Chiefs are each averaging 11 wins a year, the Saints could crack double digits if their defense gives them anything this year, the Chargers are the preseason buzz team, and the Browns...Oh crap. Eric has the Browns. Poor guy. He's a fan of the team too.

But here's the thing. The Browns might get off the mat. They've imported some talent to the offensive line. They've got a few pieces on defense. Their coach and management are imaginative. If you compare the rest of Eric's team to mine and Toph's, he's got the edge. If that line on the Browns can scratch out seven wins, it's possible Eric's other four teams could win fifty games. And that would make overcoming a 13 & 15-win deficit possible. Eric will need everything to go right, but he's not drawing dead.



Zack/Paul (165 Wins)

1. New England - 58 (13, 15, 13, 17)
2. Indianapolis - 41 (12, 13, 8, 8)
3. New York Giants - 30 (7, 6, 6, 11)
4. Tampa Bay - 21 (4, 2, 6, 9)
5. Jacksonville - 15 (4, 3, 5, 3)

This is an exciting squad for year five. Every team on this list has a trajectory pointed upward. The Bucs and Jags are buzz teams, the Giants are relevant again, the Colts have Andrew Luck, and the Patriots could go 19-0. There's only one problem: Zack & Paul are 12/14 wins back of the leaders. They'll need all five of their teams to produce, and they'll need some duds from me and Toph (which is likely...more on this in a bit).

New England has six more wins than second-place Seattle. They also have the highest win projection for 2017. The crazy thing is the Giants, who have averaged a respectable 7.5 wins a game, are tied with Alex's Texans as the worst third-round pick. Overall, it appears we drafted pretty solidly. First round teams have won 265 games, 2nd rounders 223, 3rd rounders 199, 4th rounders 148, and 5th rounders 164 games (this jump is largely due to Arizona's outlying 43 wins). It appears the NFL is reasonably predictable, largely because it's predicated on quality quarterback play, and quality quarterback play is easily predictable in the NFL. Oops - I just gave away my strategy in advance of the next pool. Hopefully Alex won't read this (look at the quarterback play of the teams he drafted).



Toph (177 Wins)

1. Atlanta - 31 (4, 6, 8, 13)
2. Pittsburgh - 43 (8, 11, 11, 13)
3. Dallas - 38 (8, 13, 4, 13)
4. Chicago - 22 (8, 5, 6, 3)
5. Arizona - 43 (10, 11, 14, 8)

Toph is coming off an enormous 50-win season, second only to my outlier 58-win 2015. Atlanta and Dallas are regression candidates, but both remain good bets for winning records. Vegas has the Cardinals winning an over/under of 8 1/2 games, and the Steelers have the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl. Toph's problem is his hometown Bears, a laughingstock of a franchise currently favored in just two games this season.

One threat to Toph's chances is quarterback injury. Chicago's situation is bad enough it wouldn't matter, but an injury to the signal-caller of one of his other four teams would be disastrous. Three of those QBs are MVP candidates, while the value of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals has already been proven by the games he's missed. None of these teams has a suitable backup, so Toph will need them all to stay healthy to finish his comeback. The health of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Patrick Peterson, and others will be crucial as well. (Damn, Toph has a beastly fantasy football squad).

One final twist to keep an eye on - Atlanta's Super Bowl meltdown. In a close race, could that one missing win make the difference? Will Atlanta recover psychologically? Will New England use that comeback as a rocket ship to an undefeated season and a dramatic Zack/Paul comeback? Certainly there are a dozen unlikely results over the five years we could point to, but none so clear-cut as Super Bowl LI.


Tom (179 Wins)

1. Denver - 51 (15, 12, 15, 9)
2. Washington - 24 (3, 4, 9, 8)
3. Carolina - 43 (12, 8, 17, 6)
4. Philadelphia - 34 (10, 10, 7, 7)
5. New York Jets - 27 (8, 4, 10, 5)

Some called this race over after year three, but I never believed it so. There are gamblers who have underestimated Toph Moore in the past, and there are gamblers still placing wagers. The Vegas over/under for Toph's teams in year five is about 44, while mine is just 36.5. Currently down just two wins, this makes Toph the clear favorite heading into year five.

I do think my squad is more antifragile than Toph's. The most crushing injury I could sustain would be to Cam Newton, then Kirk Cousins, then Von Miller or Carson Wentz. I think my top four teams will each win a middling number of games. And then there are the Jets.

For an anchor, they're not so bad. Everyone but Alex has a more harmful grenade on their team. I can't complain about their win total considering the sad parade of QBs who've trotted through the Meadowlands. But damn if this offseason hasn't been a punch to the stomach. Never before in the NFL have we seen a team deliberately tank a season like the 2017 Jets. The best player on their offense might be some guard named James Carpenter described as "a borderline Pro Bowl player" by this puff piece and it might be Bilal Powell. Their quarterback is Josh McCown. His backups are Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg. This won't end well for the Jets. It's not supposed to. The question is how it will end for the rest of us.