Here we go. The five year bet has come down to its last two months. For some, this homestretch represents a merciful release from years of misery. Others are on the edge of their seats on Sundays, watching their teams close out or blow games that could be the difference between fortune & glory and debt & devastation. Here's a late look at what went wrong, what went right, and what to watch for as the Bet crescendoes to a riveting finish.
Alex (178 Wins)
1. San Francisco (30)
2. Cincinnati (43)
3. Houston (34)
4. Miami (36)
5. Buffalo (35)
Prospects: Drawing Dead
What Went Wrong: Alex's top pick, his hometown 49ers, the second pick in the draft, have won eight games since they parted ways with Jim Harbaugh. Alex and the Niners will be a cautionary tale for the next Five Year Bet: no matter how glittery a team looks, unstable ownership and small sample-size quarterback play should be considered suspiciously. The rest of Alex's team isn't bad, but it isn't good either. Lacking franchise QBs, (as Bengal fans know, Andy Dalton doesn't count) these teams haven't managed to string together many strong seasons.
Eric (187 Wins)
2. Kansas City (50)
3. New Orleans (41)
4. Cleveland (15)
5. San Diego (32)
Prospects: Bleaker Than Bleak
What Went Wrong: Just one pick. Eric took his favorite team, the Cleveland Browns, in the fourth round. I believe if you ask Eric, he'd tell you it was a sentimental pick. I can't hate on him - I took my home team and my then-fantasy-franchise QB's team with my first two picks - but there's no denying the albatross that was the Cleveland Browns from 2013 to 2017. Those who play daily fantasy know that putting together a tournament-winning lineup is more about avoiding "murders" like the Browns than hitting the upside of every pick. The Browns have murdered Eric's 5-Year squad. If they could have managed a meager six wins per season, Eric would be in the thick of things. They've averaged three.
Zack/Paul (189 Wins)
2. Indianapolis (44)
3. New York Giants (32)
4. Tampa Bay (25)
5. Jacksonville (22)
Prospects: Drawing Dead
What Went Wrong: If the Browns were a murder, the northern Florida teams were a double-homicide. Jacksonville was tied with Cleveland for fewest wins until this season while the Bucs will go the duration without posting a double-digit win total. While the Patriots have won eight more games than anyone else during the Bet - a number that figures to grow before it's over - the Colts have fallen off after a big start and the Giants only posted one good season. The painful part for Zack & Paul is knowing who they could have picked over those Floridians, including the undrafted Vikings (39 wins) and Raiders (30).
Jamie/Shuster/Jack (193 Wins)
2. Baltimore (37)
3. Detroit (40)
4. St. Louis/Los Angeles (31)
5. Tennessee (27)
Prospects: So You're Telling Me There's A Chance!
What It Comes Down To: Three months ago I wrote in this space "Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck."
Well, Seattle may get to double digits, Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee all have their eyes on the playoffs, and the Rams definitely don't suck. The trio is accelerating on me and Toph like a heat-seeking missile. They could get three to five of their teams into the postseason, and then things could really get interesting. Every game this team plays is critical, so last night's Seahawks loss to Toph's Falcons was a setback. It's still a distant chance, but keep an eye on this squad down the stretch.
Toph (203 Wins)
1. Atlanta (37)
2. Pittsburgh (51)
3. Dallas (43)
4. Chicago (25)
5. Arizona (47)
Prospects: Strong
What It Comes Down To: Toph hasn't made up any ground on me this season and his teams profile similar to mine. We both have one Super Bowl contender (Pittsburgh/Philadelphia), one second-tier NFC South team (Atlanta/Carolina), one fading team from the NFC East (Dallas/Washington), one plucky bad team (Chicago/New York Jets) and one disgraced former powerhouse with a defense and no quarterback (Arizona/Denver). The remaining head-to-head battles will be crucial:
Week 12: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Week 13: Washington @ Dallas
Week 15: Arizona @ Washington
Week 17: Carolina @ Atlanta
Week 17: Dallas @ Philadelphia
Tom (206 Wins)
2. Washington (28)
3. Carolina (50)
4. Philadelphia (43)
5. New York Jets (31)
Prospects: Strong
What It Comes Down To: My worst fear - a post-Peyton Broncos hellscape - has come to pass. But the Eagles have picked up the slack with a league-leading nine wins in ten games. It wouldn't be surprising to see them drafted first in the next Bet. The Panthers, tops in wins among all teams taken after the first two rounds, are on track for another strong season. I would have gladly taken four wins out of the Jets before the season, and they're already there.
Of course, if I'd just gone Colts over Redskins as I carefully considered, this pool would over without a sweat. That wouldn't have been as exciting as the nailbiter we have in store these last few weeks. The two week 17 matchups against Toph could turn the pool, as could the playoffs. It's possible the Bet won't be decided until January, or possibly even until Super Bowl Sunday in February.
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