The Homestretch

Here we go. The five year bet has come down to its last two months. For some, this homestretch represents a merciful release from years of misery. Others are on the edge of their seats on Sundays, watching their teams close out or blow games that could be the difference between fortune & glory and debt & devastation. Here's a late look at what went wrong, what went right, and what to watch for as the Bet crescendoes to a riveting finish.


Alex (178 Wins)

1. San Francisco (30)
2. Cincinnati (43)
3. Houston (34)
4. Miami (36)
5. Buffalo (35)

Prospects: Drawing Dead

What Went Wrong: Alex's top pick, his hometown 49ers, the second pick in the draft, have won eight games since they parted ways with Jim Harbaugh. Alex and the Niners will be a cautionary tale for the next Five Year Bet: no matter how glittery a team looks, unstable ownership and small sample-size quarterback play should be considered suspiciously. The rest of Alex's team isn't bad, but it isn't good either. Lacking franchise QBs, (as Bengal fans know, Andy Dalton doesn't count) these teams haven't managed to string together many strong seasons.


Eric (187 Wins)

1. Green Bay (49)
2. Kansas City (50)
3. New Orleans (41)
4. Cleveland (15)
5. San Diego (32)

Prospects: Bleaker Than Bleak

What Went Wrong: Just one pick. Eric took his favorite team, the Cleveland Browns, in the fourth round. I believe if you ask Eric, he'd tell you it was a sentimental pick. I can't hate on him - I took my home team and my then-fantasy-franchise QB's team with my first two picks - but there's no denying the albatross that was the Cleveland Browns from 2013 to 2017. Those who play daily fantasy know that putting together a tournament-winning lineup is more about avoiding "murders" like the Browns than hitting the upside of every pick. The Browns have murdered Eric's 5-Year squad. If they could have managed a meager six wins per season, Eric would be in the thick of things. They've averaged three.


Zack/Paul (189 Wins)

1. New England (66)
2. Indianapolis (44)
3. New York Giants (32)
4. Tampa Bay (25)
5. Jacksonville (22)

Prospects: Drawing Dead

What Went Wrong: If the Browns were a murder, the northern Florida teams were a double-homicide. Jacksonville was tied with Cleveland for fewest wins until this season while the Bucs will go the duration without posting a double-digit win total. While the Patriots have won eight more games than anyone else during the Bet - a number that figures to grow before it's over - the Colts have fallen off after a big start and the Giants only posted one good season. The painful part for Zack & Paul is knowing who they could have picked over those Floridians, including the undrafted Vikings (39 wins) and Raiders (30).


Jamie/Shuster/Jack (193 Wins)

1. Seattle (58)
2. Baltimore (37)
3. Detroit (40)
4. St. Louis/Los Angeles (31)
5. Tennessee (27)

Prospects: So You're Telling Me There's A Chance!

What It Comes Down To: Three months ago I wrote in this space "Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck."

Well, Seattle may get to double digits, Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee all have their eyes on the playoffs, and the Rams definitely don't suck. The trio is accelerating on me and Toph like a heat-seeking missile. They could get three to five of their teams into the postseason, and then things could really get interesting. Every game this team plays is critical, so last night's Seahawks loss to Toph's Falcons was a setback. It's still a distant chance, but keep an eye on this squad down the stretch.


Toph (203 Wins)

1. Atlanta (37)
2. Pittsburgh (51)
3. Dallas (43)
4. Chicago (25)
5. Arizona (47)

Prospects: Strong

What It Comes Down To: Toph hasn't made up any ground on me this season and his teams profile similar to mine. We both have one Super Bowl contender (Pittsburgh/Philadelphia), one second-tier NFC South team (Atlanta/Carolina), one fading team from the NFC East (Dallas/Washington), one plucky bad team (Chicago/New York Jets) and one disgraced former powerhouse with a defense and no quarterback (Arizona/Denver). The remaining head-to-head battles will be crucial:

Week 12: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Week 13: Washington @ Dallas
Week 15: Arizona @ Washington
Week 17: Carolina @ Atlanta
Week 17: Dallas @ Philadelphia


Tom (206 Wins)

1. Denver (54)
2. Washington (28)
3. Carolina (50)
4. Philadelphia (43)
5. New York Jets (31)

Prospects: Strong

What It Comes Down To: My worst fear - a post-Peyton Broncos hellscape - has come to pass. But the Eagles have picked up the slack with a league-leading nine wins in ten games. It wouldn't be surprising to see them drafted first in the next Bet. The Panthers, tops in wins among all teams taken after the first two rounds, are on track for another strong season. I would have gladly taken four wins out of the Jets before the season, and they're already there.

Of course, if I'd just gone Colts over Redskins as I carefully considered, this pool would over without a sweat. That wouldn't have been as exciting as the nailbiter we have in store these last few weeks. The two week 17 matchups against Toph could turn the pool, as could the playoffs. It's possible the Bet won't be decided until January, or possibly even until Super Bowl Sunday in February.

Standings After Four Years

What a fun pool! (For some of us). It's been a slow roller-coaster. After the first year, I had Eric atop the power rankings. A year later, Eric had the most wins and I gave Jamie/Shuster/Jack the best chance of winning. I surged out to a big lead after a huge third season and some speculated that lead might be insurmountable. But my teams tied with Alex's for the fewest wins last season while Toph (who posted the least wins of anyone in year one) mounted a huge charge. Nineteen wins now separate my first-place squad from basement-dwelling Alex. Let's take a look at each team's chances as we prepare for the grand finale, in reverse order of current standing.


Alex (160 Wins)

1. San Francisco - 29 (14, 8, 5, 2)
2. Cincinnati - 39 (11, 10, 12, 6)
3. Houston - 30 (2, 9, 9, 10)
4. Miami - 32 (8, 8, 6, 10)
5. Buffalo - 30 (6, 9, 8, 7)

Alex's team appears to be an exercise in mediocrity. All of his teams have won between 29 and 39 games, averaging between 7 and 10 wins a season. He's only had three team seasons outside the 6-11 win range. None of his teams have played in a Super Bowl, but all except his beloved Bills have reached the playoffs at least once.

But if you're in last place and you have the least chance of winning, is that mediocre? That sounds more like awful. None of Alex's teams has much chance of winning 13+ games this season; the 49ers probably have a better chance of losing 13. It's those Niners, not the Bills, that are haunting Alex. Drafted second overall, they've won fewer games than any other first-round pick. Only Washington has won fewer games among teams drafted in the first three rounds. If San Fran had won an average number of games for a first-round pick, Alex would be right there. Bad as they've been, as the worst team on Alex's roster, they've won at least five more games than the worst team on everyone else's roster. It's been the lack of a team leader that's let Alex down. Kind of like his Bills. Like his new hope, Coach McDermott, Alex will be using this season to feel out the NFL landscape and prepare for the next five years (bet).


Jamie/Shuster/Jack (163 Wins)

1. Seattle - 52 (16, 14, 11, 11)
2. Baltimore - 32 (8, 11, 5, 8)
3. Detroit - 34 (7, 11, 7, 9)
4. St. Louis/LA - 24 (7, 6, 7, 4)
5. Tennessee - 21 (7, 2, 3, 9)

While it's nearly impossible to envision a path to victory for Alex, it's merely extremely difficult to see one for these guys. Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck.

Where did it all go wrong? Tennessee won just five combined games in the 2014 & 2015 seasons. The Rams have not managed more than seven wins in any season. You can't have anchors like that and hope to win this pool. Seems like a good time to mention the two teams that went undrafted: Minnesota, who was won 31 games so far, and Oakland, who's won 26.



Eric (164 Wins)

1. Green Bay - 44 (8, 13, 11, 12)
2. Kansas City - 44 (11, 9, 12, 12)
3. New Orleans - 33 (12, 7, 7, 7)
4. Cleveland - 15 (4, 7, 3, 1)
5. San Diego/LA - 28 (10, 9, 4, 5)

Eric isn't out of this just yet. The Pack and the Chiefs are each averaging 11 wins a year, the Saints could crack double digits if their defense gives them anything this year, the Chargers are the preseason buzz team, and the Browns...Oh crap. Eric has the Browns. Poor guy. He's a fan of the team too.

But here's the thing. The Browns might get off the mat. They've imported some talent to the offensive line. They've got a few pieces on defense. Their coach and management are imaginative. If you compare the rest of Eric's team to mine and Toph's, he's got the edge. If that line on the Browns can scratch out seven wins, it's possible Eric's other four teams could win fifty games. And that would make overcoming a 13 & 15-win deficit possible. Eric will need everything to go right, but he's not drawing dead.



Zack/Paul (165 Wins)

1. New England - 58 (13, 15, 13, 17)
2. Indianapolis - 41 (12, 13, 8, 8)
3. New York Giants - 30 (7, 6, 6, 11)
4. Tampa Bay - 21 (4, 2, 6, 9)
5. Jacksonville - 15 (4, 3, 5, 3)

This is an exciting squad for year five. Every team on this list has a trajectory pointed upward. The Bucs and Jags are buzz teams, the Giants are relevant again, the Colts have Andrew Luck, and the Patriots could go 19-0. There's only one problem: Zack & Paul are 12/14 wins back of the leaders. They'll need all five of their teams to produce, and they'll need some duds from me and Toph (which is likely...more on this in a bit).

New England has six more wins than second-place Seattle. They also have the highest win projection for 2017. The crazy thing is the Giants, who have averaged a respectable 7.5 wins a game, are tied with Alex's Texans as the worst third-round pick. Overall, it appears we drafted pretty solidly. First round teams have won 265 games, 2nd rounders 223, 3rd rounders 199, 4th rounders 148, and 5th rounders 164 games (this jump is largely due to Arizona's outlying 43 wins). It appears the NFL is reasonably predictable, largely because it's predicated on quality quarterback play, and quality quarterback play is easily predictable in the NFL. Oops - I just gave away my strategy in advance of the next pool. Hopefully Alex won't read this (look at the quarterback play of the teams he drafted).



Toph (177 Wins)

1. Atlanta - 31 (4, 6, 8, 13)
2. Pittsburgh - 43 (8, 11, 11, 13)
3. Dallas - 38 (8, 13, 4, 13)
4. Chicago - 22 (8, 5, 6, 3)
5. Arizona - 43 (10, 11, 14, 8)

Toph is coming off an enormous 50-win season, second only to my outlier 58-win 2015. Atlanta and Dallas are regression candidates, but both remain good bets for winning records. Vegas has the Cardinals winning an over/under of 8 1/2 games, and the Steelers have the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl. Toph's problem is his hometown Bears, a laughingstock of a franchise currently favored in just two games this season.

One threat to Toph's chances is quarterback injury. Chicago's situation is bad enough it wouldn't matter, but an injury to the signal-caller of one of his other four teams would be disastrous. Three of those QBs are MVP candidates, while the value of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals has already been proven by the games he's missed. None of these teams has a suitable backup, so Toph will need them all to stay healthy to finish his comeback. The health of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Patrick Peterson, and others will be crucial as well. (Damn, Toph has a beastly fantasy football squad).

One final twist to keep an eye on - Atlanta's Super Bowl meltdown. In a close race, could that one missing win make the difference? Will Atlanta recover psychologically? Will New England use that comeback as a rocket ship to an undefeated season and a dramatic Zack/Paul comeback? Certainly there are a dozen unlikely results over the five years we could point to, but none so clear-cut as Super Bowl LI.


Tom (179 Wins)

1. Denver - 51 (15, 12, 15, 9)
2. Washington - 24 (3, 4, 9, 8)
3. Carolina - 43 (12, 8, 17, 6)
4. Philadelphia - 34 (10, 10, 7, 7)
5. New York Jets - 27 (8, 4, 10, 5)

Some called this race over after year three, but I never believed it so. There are gamblers who have underestimated Toph Moore in the past, and there are gamblers still placing wagers. The Vegas over/under for Toph's teams in year five is about 44, while mine is just 36.5. Currently down just two wins, this makes Toph the clear favorite heading into year five.

I do think my squad is more antifragile than Toph's. The most crushing injury I could sustain would be to Cam Newton, then Kirk Cousins, then Von Miller or Carson Wentz. I think my top four teams will each win a middling number of games. And then there are the Jets.

For an anchor, they're not so bad. Everyone but Alex has a more harmful grenade on their team. I can't complain about their win total considering the sad parade of QBs who've trotted through the Meadowlands. But damn if this offseason hasn't been a punch to the stomach. Never before in the NFL have we seen a team deliberately tank a season like the 2017 Jets. The best player on their offense might be some guard named James Carpenter described as "a borderline Pro Bowl player" by this puff piece and it might be Bilal Powell. Their quarterback is Josh McCown. His backups are Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg. This won't end well for the Jets. It's not supposed to. The question is how it will end for the rest of us.