The Conclusion

The Five Year Bet ended in impossibly dramatic fashion, with the Philadelphia Eagles winning three straight playoff games as underdogs (including Super Bowl LII) to catapult my squad over Toph's. Heading into the Divisional round of the playoffs, I trailed Toph by three games. The Eagles were my only team left, while Toph had Atlanta and Pittsburgh. To tie Toph, I needed the Eagles to win the Super Bowl while Pittsburgh (a large favorite over Jacksonville) had to lose immediately. Philly pulled out a squeaker over Atlanta when Julio Jones fell down on the deciding 4th & goal. The Steelers were rocked by the Jaguars, and a stunning accounting discovery was made: Toph's Cardinals had been erroneously credited with an extra win years earlier. Suddenly I had a chance not just to tie, but to win. That came to fruition after the Nick Foles-led Eagles stampeded the Vikings and pinballed the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Before losing his late lead, Toph had made quite a comeback himself. He stood in last place after year one, ten games behind me. After my dominant third year, Toph's deficit swelled to 17 games. Toph's team taught us just how long Five Years is in the NFL and just how important every game is. Flip one game (such as Super Bowl LI, with Toph's Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead, or two games that led to rule changes - the Dez Bryant Game and the Jesse James Game -) and the end result is different.

Five years is epic. Let's not forget that Eric led the pool after two seasons. Let's not forget I had Jamie/Shuster/Jack (just one game behind Eric) power-ranked 1st at that point. Let's not forget Zack & Paul chose the Bet's top team (New England, who outscored second place Seattle by twelve wins) but finished in fifth place. Let's not forget the team picked third in the draft (San Francisco) won thirteen games over the final three years of the bet. Let's not forget Eric's loss was due almost entirely to Cleveland, who won fewer games in five seasons than four different teams won in one. Let's not forget the two undrafted teams (Oakland and Minnesota) easily outscored the dregs.

I'm certainly biased by the glorious result, but this was about as much fun as I've ever had gambling. The slow boil of the Bet to its riveting climax generated so much intrigue, entertainment and analysis. I can't wait for the next Five Year Bet to begin - and I know some of you have been waiting years for it. Let's get it on.

Final Standings

Tom - 223 Wins

1. Denver - 56
2. Washington - 31
3. Carolina - 54
4. Philadelphia - 50
5. New York Jets - 32

Toph - 222 Wins

1. Atlanta - 42
2. Pittsburgh - 56
3. Dallas - 47
4. Chicago - 27
5. Arizona - 50

Jamie/Shuster/Jack - 211 Wins

1. Seattle - 61
2. Baltimore - 41
3. Detroit - 43
4. L.A. Rams - 35
5. Tennessee - 31

Zack/Paul - 204 Wins

1. New England - 73
2. Indianapolis - 45
3. New York Giants - 33
4. Tampa Bay - 26
5. Jacksonville - 27

Eric - 202 Wins

1. Green Bay - 51
2. Kansas City - 54
3. New Orleans - 45
4. Cleveland - 15
5. L.A. Chargers - 37

Alex - 192 Wins

1. San Francisco - 35
2. Cincinnati - 46
3. Houston - 34
4. Miami - 38
5. Buffalo - 39

The Homestretch

Here we go. The five year bet has come down to its last two months. For some, this homestretch represents a merciful release from years of misery. Others are on the edge of their seats on Sundays, watching their teams close out or blow games that could be the difference between fortune & glory and debt & devastation. Here's a late look at what went wrong, what went right, and what to watch for as the Bet crescendoes to a riveting finish.


Alex (178 Wins)

1. San Francisco (30)
2. Cincinnati (43)
3. Houston (34)
4. Miami (36)
5. Buffalo (35)

Prospects: Drawing Dead

What Went Wrong: Alex's top pick, his hometown 49ers, the second pick in the draft, have won eight games since they parted ways with Jim Harbaugh. Alex and the Niners will be a cautionary tale for the next Five Year Bet: no matter how glittery a team looks, unstable ownership and small sample-size quarterback play should be considered suspiciously. The rest of Alex's team isn't bad, but it isn't good either. Lacking franchise QBs, (as Bengal fans know, Andy Dalton doesn't count) these teams haven't managed to string together many strong seasons.


Eric (187 Wins)

1. Green Bay (49)
2. Kansas City (50)
3. New Orleans (41)
4. Cleveland (15)
5. San Diego (32)

Prospects: Bleaker Than Bleak

What Went Wrong: Just one pick. Eric took his favorite team, the Cleveland Browns, in the fourth round. I believe if you ask Eric, he'd tell you it was a sentimental pick. I can't hate on him - I took my home team and my then-fantasy-franchise QB's team with my first two picks - but there's no denying the albatross that was the Cleveland Browns from 2013 to 2017. Those who play daily fantasy know that putting together a tournament-winning lineup is more about avoiding "murders" like the Browns than hitting the upside of every pick. The Browns have murdered Eric's 5-Year squad. If they could have managed a meager six wins per season, Eric would be in the thick of things. They've averaged three.


Zack/Paul (189 Wins)

1. New England (66)
2. Indianapolis (44)
3. New York Giants (32)
4. Tampa Bay (25)
5. Jacksonville (22)

Prospects: Drawing Dead

What Went Wrong: If the Browns were a murder, the northern Florida teams were a double-homicide. Jacksonville was tied with Cleveland for fewest wins until this season while the Bucs will go the duration without posting a double-digit win total. While the Patriots have won eight more games than anyone else during the Bet - a number that figures to grow before it's over - the Colts have fallen off after a big start and the Giants only posted one good season. The painful part for Zack & Paul is knowing who they could have picked over those Floridians, including the undrafted Vikings (39 wins) and Raiders (30).


Jamie/Shuster/Jack (193 Wins)

1. Seattle (58)
2. Baltimore (37)
3. Detroit (40)
4. St. Louis/Los Angeles (31)
5. Tennessee (27)

Prospects: So You're Telling Me There's A Chance!

What It Comes Down To: Three months ago I wrote in this space "Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck."

Well, Seattle may get to double digits, Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee all have their eyes on the playoffs, and the Rams definitely don't suck. The trio is accelerating on me and Toph like a heat-seeking missile. They could get three to five of their teams into the postseason, and then things could really get interesting. Every game this team plays is critical, so last night's Seahawks loss to Toph's Falcons was a setback. It's still a distant chance, but keep an eye on this squad down the stretch.


Toph (203 Wins)

1. Atlanta (37)
2. Pittsburgh (51)
3. Dallas (43)
4. Chicago (25)
5. Arizona (47)

Prospects: Strong

What It Comes Down To: Toph hasn't made up any ground on me this season and his teams profile similar to mine. We both have one Super Bowl contender (Pittsburgh/Philadelphia), one second-tier NFC South team (Atlanta/Carolina), one fading team from the NFC East (Dallas/Washington), one plucky bad team (Chicago/New York Jets) and one disgraced former powerhouse with a defense and no quarterback (Arizona/Denver). The remaining head-to-head battles will be crucial:

Week 12: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Week 13: Washington @ Dallas
Week 15: Arizona @ Washington
Week 17: Carolina @ Atlanta
Week 17: Dallas @ Philadelphia


Tom (206 Wins)

1. Denver (54)
2. Washington (28)
3. Carolina (50)
4. Philadelphia (43)
5. New York Jets (31)

Prospects: Strong

What It Comes Down To: My worst fear - a post-Peyton Broncos hellscape - has come to pass. But the Eagles have picked up the slack with a league-leading nine wins in ten games. It wouldn't be surprising to see them drafted first in the next Bet. The Panthers, tops in wins among all teams taken after the first two rounds, are on track for another strong season. I would have gladly taken four wins out of the Jets before the season, and they're already there.

Of course, if I'd just gone Colts over Redskins as I carefully considered, this pool would over without a sweat. That wouldn't have been as exciting as the nailbiter we have in store these last few weeks. The two week 17 matchups against Toph could turn the pool, as could the playoffs. It's possible the Bet won't be decided until January, or possibly even until Super Bowl Sunday in February.

Standings After Four Years

What a fun pool! (For some of us). It's been a slow roller-coaster. After the first year, I had Eric atop the power rankings. A year later, Eric had the most wins and I gave Jamie/Shuster/Jack the best chance of winning. I surged out to a big lead after a huge third season and some speculated that lead might be insurmountable. But my teams tied with Alex's for the fewest wins last season while Toph (who posted the least wins of anyone in year one) mounted a huge charge. Nineteen wins now separate my first-place squad from basement-dwelling Alex. Let's take a look at each team's chances as we prepare for the grand finale, in reverse order of current standing.


Alex (160 Wins)

1. San Francisco - 29 (14, 8, 5, 2)
2. Cincinnati - 39 (11, 10, 12, 6)
3. Houston - 30 (2, 9, 9, 10)
4. Miami - 32 (8, 8, 6, 10)
5. Buffalo - 30 (6, 9, 8, 7)

Alex's team appears to be an exercise in mediocrity. All of his teams have won between 29 and 39 games, averaging between 7 and 10 wins a season. He's only had three team seasons outside the 6-11 win range. None of his teams have played in a Super Bowl, but all except his beloved Bills have reached the playoffs at least once.

But if you're in last place and you have the least chance of winning, is that mediocre? That sounds more like awful. None of Alex's teams has much chance of winning 13+ games this season; the 49ers probably have a better chance of losing 13. It's those Niners, not the Bills, that are haunting Alex. Drafted second overall, they've won fewer games than any other first-round pick. Only Washington has won fewer games among teams drafted in the first three rounds. If San Fran had won an average number of games for a first-round pick, Alex would be right there. Bad as they've been, as the worst team on Alex's roster, they've won at least five more games than the worst team on everyone else's roster. It's been the lack of a team leader that's let Alex down. Kind of like his Bills. Like his new hope, Coach McDermott, Alex will be using this season to feel out the NFL landscape and prepare for the next five years (bet).


Jamie/Shuster/Jack (163 Wins)

1. Seattle - 52 (16, 14, 11, 11)
2. Baltimore - 32 (8, 11, 5, 8)
3. Detroit - 34 (7, 11, 7, 9)
4. St. Louis/LA - 24 (7, 6, 7, 4)
5. Tennessee - 21 (7, 2, 3, 9)

While it's nearly impossible to envision a path to victory for Alex, it's merely extremely difficult to see one for these guys. Seattle should get to double digits again, but the boys will probably need three of their other teams to match them. While Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee have their eyes on the playoffs, none feels like the sort of 13+ win juggernaut the trio needs. The Rams still suck.

Where did it all go wrong? Tennessee won just five combined games in the 2014 & 2015 seasons. The Rams have not managed more than seven wins in any season. You can't have anchors like that and hope to win this pool. Seems like a good time to mention the two teams that went undrafted: Minnesota, who was won 31 games so far, and Oakland, who's won 26.



Eric (164 Wins)

1. Green Bay - 44 (8, 13, 11, 12)
2. Kansas City - 44 (11, 9, 12, 12)
3. New Orleans - 33 (12, 7, 7, 7)
4. Cleveland - 15 (4, 7, 3, 1)
5. San Diego/LA - 28 (10, 9, 4, 5)

Eric isn't out of this just yet. The Pack and the Chiefs are each averaging 11 wins a year, the Saints could crack double digits if their defense gives them anything this year, the Chargers are the preseason buzz team, and the Browns...Oh crap. Eric has the Browns. Poor guy. He's a fan of the team too.

But here's the thing. The Browns might get off the mat. They've imported some talent to the offensive line. They've got a few pieces on defense. Their coach and management are imaginative. If you compare the rest of Eric's team to mine and Toph's, he's got the edge. If that line on the Browns can scratch out seven wins, it's possible Eric's other four teams could win fifty games. And that would make overcoming a 13 & 15-win deficit possible. Eric will need everything to go right, but he's not drawing dead.



Zack/Paul (165 Wins)

1. New England - 58 (13, 15, 13, 17)
2. Indianapolis - 41 (12, 13, 8, 8)
3. New York Giants - 30 (7, 6, 6, 11)
4. Tampa Bay - 21 (4, 2, 6, 9)
5. Jacksonville - 15 (4, 3, 5, 3)

This is an exciting squad for year five. Every team on this list has a trajectory pointed upward. The Bucs and Jags are buzz teams, the Giants are relevant again, the Colts have Andrew Luck, and the Patriots could go 19-0. There's only one problem: Zack & Paul are 12/14 wins back of the leaders. They'll need all five of their teams to produce, and they'll need some duds from me and Toph (which is likely...more on this in a bit).

New England has six more wins than second-place Seattle. They also have the highest win projection for 2017. The crazy thing is the Giants, who have averaged a respectable 7.5 wins a game, are tied with Alex's Texans as the worst third-round pick. Overall, it appears we drafted pretty solidly. First round teams have won 265 games, 2nd rounders 223, 3rd rounders 199, 4th rounders 148, and 5th rounders 164 games (this jump is largely due to Arizona's outlying 43 wins). It appears the NFL is reasonably predictable, largely because it's predicated on quality quarterback play, and quality quarterback play is easily predictable in the NFL. Oops - I just gave away my strategy in advance of the next pool. Hopefully Alex won't read this (look at the quarterback play of the teams he drafted).



Toph (177 Wins)

1. Atlanta - 31 (4, 6, 8, 13)
2. Pittsburgh - 43 (8, 11, 11, 13)
3. Dallas - 38 (8, 13, 4, 13)
4. Chicago - 22 (8, 5, 6, 3)
5. Arizona - 43 (10, 11, 14, 8)

Toph is coming off an enormous 50-win season, second only to my outlier 58-win 2015. Atlanta and Dallas are regression candidates, but both remain good bets for winning records. Vegas has the Cardinals winning an over/under of 8 1/2 games, and the Steelers have the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl. Toph's problem is his hometown Bears, a laughingstock of a franchise currently favored in just two games this season.

One threat to Toph's chances is quarterback injury. Chicago's situation is bad enough it wouldn't matter, but an injury to the signal-caller of one of his other four teams would be disastrous. Three of those QBs are MVP candidates, while the value of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals has already been proven by the games he's missed. None of these teams has a suitable backup, so Toph will need them all to stay healthy to finish his comeback. The health of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Patrick Peterson, and others will be crucial as well. (Damn, Toph has a beastly fantasy football squad).

One final twist to keep an eye on - Atlanta's Super Bowl meltdown. In a close race, could that one missing win make the difference? Will Atlanta recover psychologically? Will New England use that comeback as a rocket ship to an undefeated season and a dramatic Zack/Paul comeback? Certainly there are a dozen unlikely results over the five years we could point to, but none so clear-cut as Super Bowl LI.


Tom (179 Wins)

1. Denver - 51 (15, 12, 15, 9)
2. Washington - 24 (3, 4, 9, 8)
3. Carolina - 43 (12, 8, 17, 6)
4. Philadelphia - 34 (10, 10, 7, 7)
5. New York Jets - 27 (8, 4, 10, 5)

Some called this race over after year three, but I never believed it so. There are gamblers who have underestimated Toph Moore in the past, and there are gamblers still placing wagers. The Vegas over/under for Toph's teams in year five is about 44, while mine is just 36.5. Currently down just two wins, this makes Toph the clear favorite heading into year five.

I do think my squad is more antifragile than Toph's. The most crushing injury I could sustain would be to Cam Newton, then Kirk Cousins, then Von Miller or Carson Wentz. I think my top four teams will each win a middling number of games. And then there are the Jets.

For an anchor, they're not so bad. Everyone but Alex has a more harmful grenade on their team. I can't complain about their win total considering the sad parade of QBs who've trotted through the Meadowlands. But damn if this offseason hasn't been a punch to the stomach. Never before in the NFL have we seen a team deliberately tank a season like the 2017 Jets. The best player on their offense might be some guard named James Carpenter described as "a borderline Pro Bowl player" by this puff piece and it might be Bilal Powell. Their quarterback is Josh McCown. His backups are Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg. This won't end well for the Jets. It's not supposed to. The question is how it will end for the rest of us.

Third Year Standings

Three years into the pool and we're seeing some separation. I've surged to a 17-win lead ahead of the peloton. However, the best days are behind most of my teams. I'm feeling confident, but it's not over.

Standings

1. Tom - 144 wins (48, 38, 58)

1. Denver - 42 (15, 12, 15)
2. Washington - 16 (3, 4, 9)
3. Carolina - 37 (12, 8, 17)
4. Philadelphia - 27 (10, 10, 7)
5. New York Jets - 22 (8, 4, 10)

I picked up 15+ wins on everyone this season to take a commanding lead. It was the best season anyone has had the first three years - by nine wins. Carolina is now fourth overall with eleven more wins than any other third round pick and more than any team picked after the first round. At least three of these teams appear headed for a downturn, so this race isn't over just yet.

2. Toph - 127 wins (38, 46, 43)

1. Atlanta - 18 (4, 6, 8)
2. Pittsburgh - 30 (8, 11, 11)
3. Dallas - 25 (8, 13, 4)
4. Chicago - 19 (8, 5, 6)
5. Arizona - 35 (10, 11, 14)

If Atlanta had won an average number of games for a first round pick, Toph would be just two wins out of first. If Arizona had won an average number of games for a fifth round pick, Toph would be in last place. 


2. Eric - 127 wins (45, 45, 37)

1. Green Bay - 32 (8, 13, 11)
2. Kansas City - 32 (11, 9, 12)
3. New Orleans - 26 (12, 7, 7)
4. Cleveland - 14 (4, 7, 3)
5. San Diego - 23 (10, 9, 4)
Klein is a threat if Hue Jackson and RGIII can turn his beloved Browns around. His other four are playoff contenders, and Green Bay has potential to rip off 17 wins any season.


4. Alex - 125 wins (41, 44, 40)

1. San Francisco - 27 (14, 8, 5)
2. Cincinnati - 33 (11, 10, 12)
3. Houston - 20 (2, 9, 9)
4. Miami - 22 (8, 8, 6)
5. Buffalo - 23 (6, 9, 8)
The homer Niners over Seahawks pick is haunting Alex. Had he taken Seattle over San Fran, Alex would be just four wins out of first with a brighter future. It's even possible San Fran will end up being Alex's lowest-scoring team, as he has no stinkers.


5. Jamie/Shuster/Jack - 122 wins (45, 44, 33)

1. Seattle - 41 (16, 14, 11)
2. Baltimore - 24 (8, 11, 5)
3. Detroit - 25 (7, 11, 7)
4. Los Angeles - 20 (7, 6, 7)
5. Tennessee - 12 (7, 2, 3)

Last season was cataclysmic for the trio. Just one of their teams won more than seven games. The outlook isn't particularly bright for their bottom four teams. JSJ needs a miracle to return to contention.


6. Zack/Paul - 117 wins (40, 39, 38)

1. New England - 41 (13, 15, 13)
2. Indianapolis - 33 (12, 13, 8)
3. New York Giants - 19 (7, 6, 6)
4. Tampa Bay - 12 (4, 2, 6)
5. Jacksonville - 12 (4, 3, 5)

Three teams are tied for last with twelve wins over the first three years of the pool. Zack & Paul have two of them. They might not be drawing dead, though. These teams have potential. 

___

And now a look at team totals through three years, and where each was drafted:

5) Denver - 42 (15, 12, 15)
4) New England - 41 (13, 15, 13) 
3) Seattle - 41 (16, 14, 11)
17) Carolina - 37 (12, 8, 17)
29) Arizona - 35 (10, 11, 14)
11) Cincinnati - 33 (11, 10, 12) 
9) Indianapolis - 33 (12, 13, 8)
1) Green Bay - 32 (8, 13, 11)
12) Kansas City - 32 (11, 9, 12)
7) Pittsburgh - 30 (8, 11, 11) 
20) Philadelphia - 27 (10, 10, 7)
2) San Francisco - 27 (14, 8, 5)
13) New Orleans - 26 (12, 7, 7) 
15) Detroit - 25 (7, 11, 7)
18) Dallas - 25 (8, 13, 4)
10) Baltimore - 24 (8, 11, 5)
26) Buffalo - 23 (6, 9, 8)
27) San Diego - 23 (10, 9, 4)
25) New York Jets - 22 (8, 4, 10)
23) Miami - 22 (8, 8, 6)
14) Houston - 20 (2, 9, 9)
22) Los Angeles - 20 (7, 6, 7)
16) New York Giants - 19 (7, 6, 6)
19) Chicago - 19 (8, 5, 6)
6) Atlanta - 18 (4, 6, 8) 
8) Washington - 16 (3, 4, 9)
24) Cleveland - 14 (4, 7, 3)
21) Tampa Bay - 12 (4, 2, 6)
30) Jacksonville - 12 (4, 3, 5)
28) Tennessee - 12 (7, 2, 3)

Year Two Power Rankings

The NCAA tournament culminated in a riveting Final Four and title game earlier this week. The NBA quickly approaches an intriguing, unpredictable Playoffs. Major league baseball has finally arrived. The Masters is headed into the weekend, and dudes are still playing hockey. In other words,


We're all just waiting around for NFL season. It's a good time to make our annual check-in on the endlessly entertaining 5-Year-Bet. Here's how I've got the teams ranked two years in, in terms of chances to win it all.

Jamie/Shuster/Jack (89 wins) 

This photo is dedicated to Jack Scheifly

1. Seattle 30 (16, 14)
The Seahawks have averaged an absurd 15 wins a season so far and would probably go #2 in a three-year draft tomorrow. It's got to be a bitter pill for Jack to swallow, but the trifecta made the right pick here and made a mockery of the San Fran/Seattle debate that existed heading into the draft.
2. Baltimore 19 (8, 11)
The steady Ravens will likely stick near the 9.5 wins/season average they've paced to thus far.
3. Detroit 18 (7, 11)
4. St. Louis 13 (7, 6)
The Lions and Rams don't appear to be going anywhere fast, though they still seem to have quite a bit of talent. It's hard to know what to expect out of these two, unlike the trio's other three teams. 
5. Tennessee 9 (7, 2)
Dark days for Tennessee. This team is nowhere near contention entering the midpoint of the 5-year bet.

If you scroll down you'll see last year's Power Rankings, where I had the triplets ranked 5th out of 6. Despite anemic Tennessee, their fortunes improved as three of their teams made the playoffs. If they can get anything out of Nick Foles and Tennessee can scratch out a few wins, Jamie/Shuster/Jack will be in the mix in 2017. 


 Eric (90 wins)

1. Green Bay 21 (8, 13)
If the Packers can overcome the psychological trauma they suffered January in Seattle, they're poised to rip off a string of double-digit-win seasons.
2. Kansas City 20 (11, 9)
Klein's controversial KC pick has paid off thus far, but the future isn't looking bright for the Chiefs. Their quarterback situation isn't inspiring and their defense should decline. 
3. New Orleans 19 (12, 7)
It's been a bit of an unsettling offseason for the Saints. Klein can't count on winning seasons from this team going forward, though thirty more wins from them isn't out of the question.
4. Cleveland 11 (4, 7)
There's little light at the end of this tunnel for Eric.
5. San Diego 19 (10, 9)
The Kleingenius is mining huge value out of the Chargers, left for dead along with the arm and brain of Phil Rivers by the side of the road. San Diego could soon enter the division race with KC and Denver both on a likely downswing.

Klein has the highest scoring group 40% of the way in, but most of his teams appear to be on a downward trajectory. He's in the mix cause he holds the current lead, but his teams don't appear too fearsome going forward.


Tom (86 wins)

1. Denver 27 (15, 12)
I managed to escape doomsday - the day Peyton Manning retires - for another year.
2. Washington 7 (3, 4)
Just an incredibly disastrous pick that will never be forgotten. Washington trails Indianapolis, the team I obviously should have picked, by 18 wins. I'd be sitting with 104 wins right now, fourteen more than second place.
3. Carolina 20 (12, 8)
What appeared to be an epic fail morphed into 8 wins on Carolina's unlikely stretch run, keeping them at a respectable 10 wins/season.
4. Philadelphia 20 (10, 10)
This is the most unpredictable win total for 2016 and beyond. I could see this team winning 40 games in the next three seasons and I could see them winning less than 20. All bets are off here.
5. New York Jets 12 (8, 4)
With Darrelle Revis and some other decent pieces in place, the Jets still have a chance to turn it around - and they haven't been that bad anyways, averaging 6 wins thus far.

Alex (85 wins)

1. San Francisco 22 (14, 8)
The second team selected in 2013's draft, The Niners are suddenly looking like a liability that Alex may be unable to afford.
2. Cincinnati 21 (11, 10)
3. Houston 11 (2, 9)
4. Miami 16 (8, 8)
5. Buffalo 15 (6, 9)
All of these teams have a shot at double-digit wins going forward, though their upside would appear to be limited. The Bengals and Texans have everything but a QB, the Phins are solid all-around and things could be looking up for Alex's beloved Bills with Rex Ryan in town.

Without a dominant team, it could be difficult for Alex to close the gap on the players ahead of him and hold off the squads behind him. These don't appear to be teams that will be counting many playoff wins. It really sucks for Alex that the Texans could only manage two wins in 2013.


Toph (84 wins)

1. Atlanta 10 (4, 6)
2. Pittsburgh 19 (8, 11)
3. Dallas 21 (8, 13)
It's hard to know what to expect from these teams going forward. They're each equipped with solid quarterbacks surrounded by questionable talent and depth. 
4. Chicago 13 (8, 5)
Chicago:Toph :: Cleveland:Eric. The dreaded one-two punch of your team crushing both your fandom and your 5-year-bet.
5. Arizona 21 (10, 11)
The sickest thing about this pick, the final dreg that was actually drafted (Minnesota and Oakland went undrafted) is that the Cards easily could have won more games, having missed the playoffs with a 10-6 record in 2013 and having played the latter part of this season without their top two quarterbacks.

Toph's funky team is led by his 3rd and 5th round draft picks. His top pick has averaged 5 wins a season while the other first-round draft picks have averaged 12.8. That gap accounts for more than double the six wins Toph currently trails by. 


Zack/Paul (79 wins)

1. New England 28 (13, 15)
2. Indianapolis 25 (12, 13)
The Colts would almost certainly be the first pick in a three-year draft and have averaged 12.5 wins over the first two years of the bet. They were a steal in the second round.
3. New York Giants 13 (7, 6)
The Giants look poised to recover from the poor 6.5 wins/season clip they're averaging currently.
4. Tampa Bay 6 (4, 2)
5. Jacksonville 7 (4, 3)
The Jaguars and Bucs are absolutely anchoring this top-heavy squad. Zack & Paul have a lot riding on Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles.

Zack and Paul have gotten 53 wins out of their top two teams (no else has more than 49 and Toph has 29) but just 26 (4.3 wins/season) out of their final three picks. They can't afford any more sub-5 win seasons. The time is now for their dregs.

Tom's Year One Power Rankings

Eric (45 points)

1. Packers (8)
2. Chiefs (11)
3. Saints (12)
4. Browns (4)
5. Chargers (10)

For those who don't know Klein from the fantasy league, this squad is a perfect example of what he is: some variation of idiot savant who repeatedly makes nonsensical plays and hits paydirt with them. Chiefs in round two was vintage Klein, and it's paying off early. Chargers in the 5th is looking like a huge steal, while the Packers and Saints are good bets for at least 3 more years of quality production. The scary thing about this team is how unlucky Klein was in season one - the Aaron Rodgers injury, the Chiefs injuries, the Saints playoff matchup, San Diego's struggles in close games.

Tom (48 points)


1. Broncos (15)
2. Redskins (3)
3. Panthers (12)
4. Eagles (10)
5. Jets (8)

The bottom line is that I absolutely nailed 4/5 picks and horrifically missed on one. If I had taken the Colts instead of the 'Skins in round 2, I would already be a massive favorite to win this pool. The Brock Osweiler Broncos worry me deeply, but you can't argue with the production from season one. The Panthers, Eagles and Jets are all looking high-value late round plays.




Toph (38 points)

1. Falcons (4)
2. Steelers (8)
3. Cowboys (8)
4. Bears (8)
5. Cardinals (10)

This team is not nearly as bad as their year one total would indicate. Four of Toph's five teams have franchise quarterbacks contracted to long-term deals and the fifth is up-and-coming Arizona. It's unlikely any of these teams will match Atlanta's pathetic 2013 total anytime soon.




Alex (41 points)


1. 49ers (14)
2. Bengals (11)
3. Texans (2)
4. Dolphins (8)
5. Bills (6)

The Niners quietly banged out fourteen wins, but the Texans (also rather quietly, considering how remarkable it actually was) lost their last fourteen games of the season. But of all this year's dregs, Houston is the team best-poised to flip from rags to riches. A franchise QB, generally talented roster, new coaching staff and natural regression could lead to double-digit returns as soon as next season. Trouble is, there's nothing exciting going on in Cincinnati, Buffalo or Miami. They may still wind up as anchors for Alex's team.

Jamie/Shuster/Jack (45 points)

1. Seahawks (16)
2. Ravens (8)
3. Lions (7)
4. Rams (7)
5. Titans (7)

Seattle was year one's top producer and would likely be the hypothetical #1 pick of year two. Meanwhile, we just saw what Baltimore's floor is - and it's eight wins. This is a team with no virtually no downside. The John Harbaugh/Ossie Newsome combo is just too solid. But Baltimore's ceiling isn't a lot higher. Joe Flacco's contract is going to keep the Ravens in a middling win range for the duration of this bet. None of their three seven-win teams has emerged as a safe contributor at this point.




Zack/Paul (40 points)


1. Patriots (13)
2. Colts (12)
3. Giants (7)
4. Buccaneers (4)
5. Jaguars (4)

This team's hopes of a comeback are riding on Lovie Smith, Jacksonville's ability to select a franchise quarterback in three months, and Eli Manning. New England and Indy can only win so many games. These guys need production from their bottom three, and they need it soon.